Fighting Against COVID-19 is A Life Long War

2020-04-03

Masks may be worn for 1-2 years or even for life, vaccines may not be effective, and long-term psychological preparation for resistance. Talk about the next 1-2 years from the COVID-19 characteristics, more serious than expected, there are 6 very troublesome places. Now we are doubting that it’ll really change the shape of the future.

Novel Coronavirus is probably one of the most powerful infectious diseases in human history.

Infectious diseases are not the more lethal, the more severe, if 100% lethal, then the transmission efficiency is very low, such as Ebola, the mortality rate is very high, but the transmission efficiency is very low, because the carrier (person) soon died, can not continue to be the transmission tool. The coronavirus strikes an efficient balance between mortality and infectivity: infectivity is very high, but mortality is not low, just make you very uncomfortable. If you do, the mortality rate is low, but the social cost is high; if you don’t care about him, the range of infection is large, and the mortality rate will rise sharply. This feature makes the present government and social system difficult The most efficient and timely measures can be said to have struck very precisely the weaknesses of national social systems. So countries are winning. The conclusion is that national systems can not prevent the global outbreak of the novel coronavirus. No matter which country first appeared, it could not be prevented.

More than 50% of coronavirus infections have no symptoms, a big percentage.

Asymptomatic infection data and other related matters, in fact, I saw some at the end of February, but we dare not say. No, People’s Daily picked it up, so we dare to come out and talk about it. The problem is much more serious than expected. I mean the situation abroad, don’t think about it.

The pyramid map of infection, many people think the virus is not so terrible, because the rate of severe illness and death is low, in fact, the opposite is true, because the nCov rate of severe illness and death is low, the virus is much more terrible than SARS.

Iceland, which now has one of the highest rates of detection coverage in the world, has obtained some very important data through a large number of tests, such as nearly 60% of all diagnosed patients in Iceland who are asymptomatic, an order of magnitude higher than in the country, and close to the results of previous tests on Japanese cruise ships and the results of the Hokkaido University study in early February (about half of the patients reported asymptomatic at Hokkaido University in early February, as shown).

Asymptomatic infections are also highly contagious

According to a recent study by the university of HoKKaiDo, japan’s NHK the coronavirus was released by japan’s NHK television station. In more than 50 cases it tracked, an average of 3.4 days infect others after an average of 3.4 days, and almost half were infected by asymptomatic infected people.

An article from «The lancet» says that recent evidence suggests that even someone who is non-symptomatic can spread COVID-19 with high efficiency, and conventional measures of protection, such as face masks, provide insufficient protection.

Why is the influenza virus so powerful that tens of millions of people can be infected in the United States alone every year? One of the central reasons is that the proportion of asymptomatic infections is very high ,56%~80%, so the coronavirus is actually much closer to influenza than SARS and MERS. Of course, it is much less lethal than influenza, but far stronger than influenza. All MERS are strong.

High temperature may not work

From Southeast Asia, Africa, South America and other regions where the weather is now relatively hot, the coronavirus growth curve and temperate, cold zone growth curve is not significantly different. Hot places are less diagnosed because the world’s developed countries are in the northern temperate zone, tropical and subtropical poor countries are more, detection capacity can not keep up, not the high temperature caused by the infection of fewer people.

JAMA today sent a paper, an interesting and more terrifying way of communication, about the Jiangsu Huai’an public bathhouse coronaviurs spread case. The interesting place of the case is the bathhouse. This is a regular bath (not big health care), male guest area is 300 square meters, there is a bath, sauna. temperatures are also very high 25 to 41°C, humidity at 60%. Nine people were infected with the coronavirus. And not at the same time. The first patient had a history of contact in Wuhan, began coughing on January 15, went to the bath on the 18th, and began to have a fever on the 19th.

The interesting points are Temperature, Humidity, and Indirect contact, which says that:

Virus does not disappear in high temperature;
Virus may spread by aerosol in high humidity space.

Success depends on the countries with weakest medical system

From the current situation, China’s system just can prevent COVID-19, perhaps the most efficient response to COVID-19 system happened; and scientific and technological capabilities. Of course, the northeast country. It depends on the ability to press the social pause button.

If there is only one country in the world, it is definitely.

But now the European and American developed countries such as the suspension bond is not thorough, testing is not enough. Now, Germany, the Czech Republic, Austria (all seem to be German-speaking countries with autocratic traditions? ) It’s a good test, a strong response, and took the patient back to Germany for treatment from Italy. In Italy, Spain, Switzerland and other countries, the rate of infection has reached at least 1.6,1.8,1.9 per 1,000 population and is basically a collapsed country. The United States same thing. In Britain, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Finland and other countries, testing is inadequate, many asymptomatic infections have not been tested, or detection capacity is saturated, Or not tough enough. So these countries, and then impact on social life. Even so in developed countries, it is more troublesome. For example, the Philippines.

COVID-19 in the Philippines should be typical and probably universal for developing countries. How to prevent this? (Philippines is tropical, indicating that the effect of high temperature containment is not obvious) The current transmission R0 at 3-4, but this is a distorted value under social control. If the natural state, I have seen a valuation of the research data before, saying that the R0 is 6-9. That’s double the infectivity. And natural transmission is highly likely to occur in many developing countries. It is impossible for countries to play by themselves, and there are between 4-5 billion people in developing countries who will surely be returned .

Vaccine might not always work.

At present, the biggest hope to beat COVID-19, one is the special drug, the other is the vaccine. At present, even if the vaccine for COVID-19 is developed, it is difficult to say it could prevent Coronavirus in the long future. Coronavirus has 66 glycosylation points, twice as many as HIV and three to six times as many as the flu virus, according to data today. There are many glycosylation points, which makes it difficult to find the right points, and it is easy to mutate. (This, of course, is only a conjecture based on the structural characteristics of the virus. hope is not realistic) the current flu vaccine is only 40-60% effective, and the vaccine is different every year. So even if you’re vaccinated, do you dare to take the mask off?

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